As Shia LaBeouf once said in a viral motivational speech, ‘Don’t let your dreams be dreams.’
The San Jose Earthquakes’ aspiration of reaching the postseason was given new life last Saturday, with the Quakes earning a vital 2-1 win over Real Salt Lake and both Sporting Kansas City and the Portland Timbers falling on the road.
Looking at the current MLS standings, San Jose sits in eighth place in the Western Conference with 37 points, four behind seventh place Portland and six points behind sixth place Sporting. What that means with three games remaining is that the Quakes must go undefeated – no ifs ands/or buts about it.
Seattle (13), Sporting Kansas City (12) and Portland (11) all hold the wins tiebreaker over San Jose (8). This late in the season, only Portland’s stranglehold on the tiebreaker is reversible, but it would require the Earthquakes to win out and the Timbers to drop their final two.
Given the form that Sounders FC is in, having won seven of their last 10 games (7-1-2), the Quakes might be more likely to capture the six seed by jumping Sporting and Portland than looking to leapfrog the team clad in neon green that has been surging since early August.
So let’s get down to math. Here’s what we know:
- The Earthquakes have three remaining games and the possibility to earn as many as nine points. Three wins would leave the Quakes with 46 points, more than the four teams in front of them currently have.
- San Jose needs to finish with a minimum of 44 points to have any chance of advancing, so nothing short of a 2-0-1 record will do.
- The Quakes must win over Sporting in the season finale on Sunday, Oct. 23, which means the team can draw one of their next two matches while the other must result in a win.
San Jose Earthquakes – 37
@ COL (10/13); vs. VAN (10/16); @ SKC (10/23)
Portland Timbers – 41
vs. COL (10/16); @ VAN (10/23)
Sporting Kanas City – 43
@ RSL (10/16); vs. SJ (10/23)
Seattle Sounders FC – 44
vs. HOU (10/12); @ FCD (10/16); vs. RSL (10/23)
Real Salt Lake – 45
vs. SKC (10/16); at SEA (10/23)
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
Here’s what would need to happen for the club to reach the playoffs:
To finish 5th – Win all three remaining games and…
- Portland earns no more than four points in their last two games AND Sporting fails to win their next match AND Seattle earns no more one point in their last three games.
There are also a multitude of ways the Quakes could finish sixth by winning all three of their remaining games, so for the sake of saving time and confusion, let’s examine how the club could advance with a draw mixed in over the next two weeks. San Jose would finish with 44 points.
To finish 6th – Go 1-0-1 in the next two games, defeat Sporting Kansas City in the season finale and…
- Portland does no better than two draws, putting them at 43 points AND Sporting Kansas City lose both remaining games, including at home against the Quakes on Oct. 23, keeping them at 43 points.
This is the most likely scenario for San Jose to jump above the red line and here’s why:
- The Quakes haven’t won three games in a row all season and it may be unrealistic to expect them to close out the season with four consecutive W’s.
- Colorado is the best home team in MLS (10-0-5) and has yet to lose at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in 2016, which means the possibility of a draw instead of a win is increased.
- San Jose would certainly be favored against an already-eliminated Vancouver side at home.
- The Quakes have had great results against Sporting Kansas City in the past, save for a hard-fought 2-1 loss recently, and have won four of the last five against the club overall.
- Portland’s recent form suggests they win everything at home (4-0-0 in last four), and lose everything on the road (0-6-0). Should the Timbers fail to win at Providence Park against Colorado, their road form could catch up to them in the season finale at BC Place in Vancouver.
- Sporting Kansas City is 1-5-1 in their last seven road contests.
All eyes turn to the Earthquakes’ next match against the Colorado Rapids on Thursday, Oct. 13. Tune in to CSN California at 6 p.m. PT.
